A government-linked analysis estimates that South Korea joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership could raise real GDP by 0.38 percentage points over ten years compared with staying outside the pact. Manufacturing and related industries were projected to gain an average 6.3 trillion to 6.7 trillion won in annual production over 15 years.
The gains would come with concentrated losses in primary industries. The same analysis estimated average annual production declines of about 710 billion won in agriculture, 60.6 billion won in forestry and 81.7 billion won in fisheries, a combined hit of roughly 850 billion won. That distribution makes compensation and adjustment policy central to any accession debate.
Losses concentrate in primary industries
The provisional results were released by several ministries working with research institutes as Korea weighs the trade-off between wider access to a major Asia-Pacific trade bloc and pressure on sectors exposed to import competition. Farm groups have also raised concerns about food security and the possibility that trade commitments could weaken existing protections.
For manufacturers, the estimate points to gains from wider market access and deeper supply-chain integration with CPTPP members. For farmers and fishers, the concern is more concentrated: even a smaller economy-wide loss can be severe when it falls on specific products, regions and households.
The figures do not amount to a decision to join. They define the economic balance policymakers would have to address if accession moves forward: broad production gains led by manufacturing, set against smaller but concentrated losses for agriculture, forestry and fisheries.