South Korea now expects national tax revenue to reach a record 478.6 trillion won this year, more than 63 trillion won above the estimate used for the supplementary budget. The revised projection is 63.2 trillion won higher than the 415.4 trillion won budget figure and 104.7 trillion won, or 28 percent, above last year's actual revenue.
The government linked the stronger outlook mainly to a semiconductor upswing that lifted corporate tax receipts and to an active stock market that increased securities transaction tax revenue. Those two sources helped turn what had been a much lower budget assumption into the highest annual tax forecast on record.
Semiconductors and markets lift receipts
The size of the revision is itself notable. The gap from the supplementary-budget estimate amounts to a 15.2 percent forecasting error. Korean reports said that rate is the fifth-largest against a final budget estimate, while the 63.2 trillion won difference is the largest in absolute terms.
For fiscal policy, the stronger revenue picture gives the government more room than expected when it planned the supplementary budget. It also highlights how quickly tax forecasts can shift when profits in a major export industry and trading activity in financial markets move sharply at the same time.
The final outcome will depend on how corporate earnings, market activity and actual tax collections develop through the rest of the year. The revised forecast changes the scale of available revenue, but the record figure remains a projection until year-end receipts are fully booked. That distinction will matter when the government decides how much of the additional revenue can be treated as durable rather than cyclical.